MLB Prediction Methodology
The complete framework behind our baseball forecasts. Every prediction is built on a foundation of data, context, and proven analytical techniques. Here's how we approach each element.
Our approach combines four pillars: starting pitching evaluation, bullpen analysis, lineup metrics (including Statcast data), and contextual factors like weather and closing lines. No single element determines a prediction. The edge comes from synthesizing all of them into a coherent projection.
The guides below detail each component of our methodology. Whether you're trying to understand our picks (backed by barrel rate analysis) or build your own model, these resources provide the foundation.
Core Methodology Guides
How MLB Games Are Predicted
The foundational framework. How we combine pitching, hitting, and contextual factors into a single probability estimate. The math and logic behind every prediction.
Read the Guide →What Metrics Matter Most
Not all stats are created equal. Learn which metrics actually predict outcomes and which are just noise. The hierarchy of predictive value for betting.
Read the Guide →Starting Pitcher Evaluation
Pitching is 70% of the equation. Our complete framework for evaluating starters beyond ERA: xFIP, CSW%, pitch mix, platoon splits, and more.
Read the Guide →Bullpen Impact on Predictions
The forgotten variable. How bullpen quality, usage patterns, and leverage affect late-game outcomes. Why elite closers matter more than you think.
Read the Guide →Advanced Topics
Closing Line Value
The market is smarter than you think. Understanding closing line value (CLV) and why beating the close is the true measure of prediction quality.
Read the Guide →Why Models Lose When Right
Variance, sample size, and the gap between being right and being profitable. The uncomfortable truth about prediction accuracy in baseball.
Read the Guide →Prediction Accuracy in Baseball
What does "accurate" even mean? Expected accuracy ranges, calibration, and realistic expectations for any baseball prediction model.
Read the Guide →Weather Effects on MLB
Wind, temperature, humidity, and altitude. The quantified impact of weather on run scoring, home runs, and game totals.
Read the Guide →