The Cubs just acquired a player who has accumulated 43.1 career WAR over 1,225 games. Alex Bregman's five-year, $175 million deal represents a significant statistical upgrade at the hot corner. Let's model what this means for Chicago's projected 2026 output.
WAR Replacement Analysis
Matt Shaw, the incumbent third baseman, produced approximately 1.2 fWAR in 2025 as a rookie. Bregman posted 3.5 fWAR in 114 games with Boston. Projecting Bregman for 145-150 games in 2026, we're looking at a 4.2-4.5 WAR season based on his recent three-year rolling average (3.8 fWAR per 150 games).
Marginal WAR Gain
+2.5 to +3.3 wins over the replacement scenario. In a division where the Cubs finished 4 games behind Milwaukee, this single acquisition closes over half that gap on paper.
Offensive Metrics Breakdown
| Metric | Bregman 2025 | MLB Average | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| wRC+ | 125 | 100 | 78th |
| wOBA | .356 | .310 | 81st |
| xwOBA | .337 | .310 | 72nd |
| Hard Hit % | 44.4% | 38.0% | 74th |
| Avg Exit Velo | 90.1 mph | 88.4 mph | 68th |
The .019 gap between Bregman's wOBA (.356) and xwOBA (.337) suggests he outperformed his expected production in 2025. Regression models project his 2026 wOBA closer to .345, but that still ranks among the top 25 position players in baseball.
Defensive Value Contribution
Bregman posted 4.6 defensive runs saved at third base in 2025, ranking in the top 15 among qualified third basemen. His range factor (2.48) and fielding percentage (.968) both exceed league averages. The Cubs ranked 18th in team defensive efficiency last year. Adding a plus defender at the hot corner addresses a tangible weakness.
Run Differential Projection Model
The Cubs' 2025 run differential was +67 (756 RS, 689 RA). Using a standard Pythagorean projection, that differential aligned with their 92-win output.
Projected 2026 adjustments:
- Bregman offensive contribution: +25 to +35 runs scored
- Lineup protection cascading effects: +10 to +15 runs
- Defensive upgrade at 3B: -8 to -12 runs allowed
- Aging curve adjustment (Bregman at 32): -5 runs
Net Run Differential Change
+22 to +43 runs
A +89 to +110 run differential projects to 94-97 wins. The Cubs' ceiling with Bregman is legitimately a 95+ win team if their rotation stays healthy.
Contract Efficiency Analysis
At $175M over five years ($35M AAV gross), the deal includes $70M in deferrals. The net present value drops to approximately $30-31M annually. At current market rates (~$8M per WAR), Bregman needs to produce 3.75-3.88 WAR annually to justify the contract on NPV terms. His recent three-year average (3.8 WAR) suggests the Cubs are paying fair market value with minimal downside risk.
Statistical Projection Summary
Projected 2026 WAR: 4.0-4.5
Projected batting line: .268/.355/.455 (.810 OPS)
Cubs projected wins: 94-97
Run differential improvement: +25 to +40 runs
Contract efficiency: Fair value at NPV