Alex Bregman to Cubs: Complete WAR Projection Analysis
The Chicago Cubs made the biggest splash of the offseason, signing Alex Bregman to a six-year, $175 million contract. After declining offers from both Houston and Boston, Bregman chose Chicago. Here's our complete statistical breakdown of what the two-time All-Star brings to Wrigley Field.
Contract Details
6 years, $175 million ($29.2M AAV). Bregman declined a return to Houston and passed on Boston's offer, choosing to join a Cubs team ready to compete.
WAR Projections for 2026
| System | 2026 WAR | AVG | HR |
|---|---|---|---|
| ZiPS | 4.5 | .268 | 24 |
| Steamer | 4.2 | .261 | 22 |
| PECOTA | 4.1 | .258 | 21 |
| Average | 4.3 | .262 | 22 |
Impact on Cubs Win Total
Using the standard conversion of roughly 10 runs per win, Bregman's projected 4.3 WAR translates to approximately 43 runs above replacement. Combined with the Cubs' existing roster, projection systems now have Chicago at 94-97 wins for 2026, up from 87-89 wins pre-signing.
Bregman's elite defensive value at third base (consistently positive DRS and OAA) adds even more to his impact. He's been one of the best all-around third basemen in baseball since his debut, combining plus defense with consistent offensive production.
Contract Value Analysis
At $29.2M AAV, Bregman's deal represents fair value for an elite third baseman entering his age-32 season. Using the $8-9M per WAR benchmark, his projected 4.3 WAR output would be worth approximately $34-39M annually. The Cubs are getting a slight discount, likely due to the longer term (6 years) providing security for both sides.
The risk comes in years 5-6 when Bregman will be 36-37 years old. However, his plate discipline (career 10.2% BB rate) and defensive versatility suggest he should age relatively well.